Good as Big Brown is - and it's undeniable that this a very talented 3
year old -- he is a very vulnerable favorite. BB hasn't faced very strong
competition in the stretch, for one thing.
The distance of the Belmont is a killer and BB has run a tough campaign this year and might be getting a bit leg-weary. But he is vulnerable to only one horse and that is Casino Drive, who appears to be a horse specially designed to run in and win the
Belmont Stakes. His dam was the same as the two previous Belmont winners
(the filly Rags to Riches in 2007 and my boy Jazil in 2006, on whom I won
a bundle when he found another gear down that seemingly eternal home
stretch at Big Sandy.) His Japanese trainers kept him out of the other
Triple Crown races, racing him only in the G2 Peter Pan Stakes, which he
romped by more than 5 lengths. Casino Drive also ran a faster pace in that
race than BBrown did in the Preakness: on paper, at least, Casino Drive is
a faster horse. So with his sterling pedigree priming him for Belmont
success and the determination of his trainer and connections to aim him
for a Belmont win, Casino Drive will be the one challenge Big Brown will
have to overcome for the trophy. The clincher is Edgar Prado at the
steering wheel -- there is no one you would rather have on top. That's why
my money is on Casino Drive and why I am ready to wait another year to see
a Triple Crown winner.
But should Big Brown win, my hat is off to him. Winning the Triple Crown
is a stunning achievment, even with the asterisks -- the soft fields that
Big Brown has faced, the amped up steroids without which no horse steps foot
on a New York track and Rick Dutrow's trash-talking. It would be a lovely thing to behold.
6.06.2008
6.03.2008
Seconditis::: Wednesday Belmont picks
SECOND FIDDLE There are some racehorses who have a undeniable talent, but suffer from one fatal flaw: they do not understand that they're supposed to win. Horses with "seconditis" have a maddening habit of never quite getting the job done. They contend, they run, they seem like they might just possibly get a nose across the wire, but somehow always come up short. If there is a poster horse for seconditis, Joppa Flat's is it. (Belmont, Race 2). This 4-year old professional maiden has 19 starts -- and 8 second-place finishes.
Joppa Flat's in fact finished second in his first six starts and then, perhaps sensing that continued effort would only be futile, finished no better than third in next four. But he recently regained his rookie form and finished second in his last two races. His last effort, when he actually stuck a head out in front of a competitor before yet again pocketing only second money, earned a respectable Beyer speed rating of 90 -- and another vivid illustration of why you should steer clear of any bet that would put Joppa Flat's in the top spot, but would be foolish to ignore him in the second spot, his natural home.
TODAY'S WAGERS
(1) Belmont Race 3
$20 exacta box 4-3
$5 exacta part wheel 4-3 with 1A
$5 exacta part wheel 1A with 4-3
COST: $60
August Rex (4) makes his third career start after winning his first career start and chasing the pace in his most recent effort to hold on for second. Bruce Levine barn is batting .290 when stretching runners of 2 sprints to a route race. Pascal (3) has 3 wins and 2 seconds to show for his six races so far this year and a bullet work last Saturday. Building New Era (1A) has a win at this distance and 2 blue ribbons on the sand. Mount goes to Cornelio who wins a third of his races when teaming up with Rick Dutrow
Joppa Flat's in fact finished second in his first six starts and then, perhaps sensing that continued effort would only be futile, finished no better than third in next four. But he recently regained his rookie form and finished second in his last two races. His last effort, when he actually stuck a head out in front of a competitor before yet again pocketing only second money, earned a respectable Beyer speed rating of 90 -- and another vivid illustration of why you should steer clear of any bet that would put Joppa Flat's in the top spot, but would be foolish to ignore him in the second spot, his natural home.
TODAY'S WAGERS
(1) Belmont Race 3
$20 exacta box 4-3
$5 exacta part wheel 4-3 with 1A
$5 exacta part wheel 1A with 4-3
COST: $60
August Rex (4) makes his third career start after winning his first career start and chasing the pace in his most recent effort to hold on for second. Bruce Levine barn is batting .290 when stretching runners of 2 sprints to a route race. Pascal (3) has 3 wins and 2 seconds to show for his six races so far this year and a bullet work last Saturday. Building New Era (1A) has a win at this distance and 2 blue ribbons on the sand. Mount goes to Cornelio who wins a third of his races when teaming up with Rick Dutrow
5.29.2008
Thursday's Belmont results
These are the results from Thursday's wagers:
Bet 1
$15 double part wheel 8-6/2-5 in the 1st and 2nd races
Result: LOSS: $30 REFUND: $30
$15 double part wheel 8-6/2-5 in the 1st and 2nd races
Result: LOSS: $30 REFUND: $30
In the first race, Last Train Babe (6) won; Redan (8) showed.
In the second race, Skip Away Belle was scratched, resulting in a $30 refund. Remaining runner Dorothy's Essence showed.
Bet 2
$40 win 1 in the 9th race
Result: REFUND: $40
Regally Jen was scratched.
$40 win 1 in the 9th race
Result: REFUND: $40
Regally Jen was scratched.
5.28.2008
Thursday's Belmont selections
The picks for Thursday, May 29:
(1) Belmont race 1
BET: $15 double part-wheel 8/6 with 3/5
First race nod goes to Redan who has early speed and endured a horror trip last out; Last Train Babe faced much cheaper when French frying the pack by 10 lengths. Second race crapshoot shapes up around Dorothy's Essence's experience and outstanding Beyer against a card of mostly unraced kiddies. Skip Away Belle comes from Wesley Ward barn which boasts superior win numbers with 2 year old starters.
(2) Belmont race 9
BET: $40 win 1
Dominick Schettino is a Bronx boy who had been training horses for more than 15 years. If you watch him closely, you'll see some of those street smarts coming through. He's a master at obscuring his horses' form and Regally Jen is a textbook case of keeping the filly's form off the pages of the Daily Racing Form. Schettino often runs his horses in races for exercise, gunning them to an early lead and then easing off in a race or two before giving his jock the green light to keep a foot on the gas pedal. Regally Jen looks like a dog at first glance, schlepping home to a 23-length, 9th place loss in her last outing, dragging 32 lengths behind prior to that and finishing 46 lengths to the bad in her first start, when she went off as the favorite. But in the most recent efforts, Jen logged some honest early fractions and shows a quick workout on April 23. Don't be surprised if this is the spot where Schettino gives Jose Bermudez the high sign to go all the way in a race where she fits.
Underneath in the exacta: Talbots Shopper (7)
(1) Belmont race 1
BET: $15 double part-wheel 8/6 with 3/5
Redan (8) and Last Train Babe (6) with Dorothy's Essence (3) and Skip Away Belle (5)
First race nod goes to Redan who has early speed and endured a horror trip last out; Last Train Babe faced much cheaper when French frying the pack by 10 lengths. Second race crapshoot shapes up around Dorothy's Essence's experience and outstanding Beyer against a card of mostly unraced kiddies. Skip Away Belle comes from Wesley Ward barn which boasts superior win numbers with 2 year old starters.
(2) Belmont race 9
BET: $40 win 1
Dominick Schettino is a Bronx boy who had been training horses for more than 15 years. If you watch him closely, you'll see some of those street smarts coming through. He's a master at obscuring his horses' form and Regally Jen is a textbook case of keeping the filly's form off the pages of the Daily Racing Form. Schettino often runs his horses in races for exercise, gunning them to an early lead and then easing off in a race or two before giving his jock the green light to keep a foot on the gas pedal. Regally Jen looks like a dog at first glance, schlepping home to a 23-length, 9th place loss in her last outing, dragging 32 lengths behind prior to that and finishing 46 lengths to the bad in her first start, when she went off as the favorite. But in the most recent efforts, Jen logged some honest early fractions and shows a quick workout on April 23. Don't be surprised if this is the spot where Schettino gives Jose Bermudez the high sign to go all the way in a race where she fits.
Underneath in the exacta: Talbots Shopper (7)
5.27.2008
It's post time!
May 27, 35 A.S.*
If you thought that Commentator was a mortal lock in yesterday's Metropolitan Mile at Belmont, based on the 7-year old's last two wickedly fast first-place finishes, you are repenting your confidence now. The fast pace wore down the classy old boy and opened the lane for an on-rushing Divine Park ($6.50) to come home by an impressive margin. Commentator hung on for second to round out the $15.40 exacts.
With Citifiesta rolling home in the next race, I tabbed the latest late double ($34.60) as well as the Pick 3 ($256) thanks to Eibar smacking some zip into Extra Zip for the win in the 9th to kick off the late exotic.
- DonnieMac
This week's tally:
WEEK OF MAY 26
Monday: +$290
Tuesday: No picks, no plays.
Wednesday: No picks, no plays.
Thursday: Picks to come.
Friday: Pick to come.
Saturday: Picks to come.
Sunday: Picks to come.
*Anno Secretariat.
If you thought that Commentator was a mortal lock in yesterday's Metropolitan Mile at Belmont, based on the 7-year old's last two wickedly fast first-place finishes, you are repenting your confidence now. The fast pace wore down the classy old boy and opened the lane for an on-rushing Divine Park ($6.50) to come home by an impressive margin. Commentator hung on for second to round out the $15.40 exacts.
With Citifiesta rolling home in the next race, I tabbed the latest late double ($34.60) as well as the Pick 3 ($256) thanks to Eibar smacking some zip into Extra Zip for the win in the 9th to kick off the late exotic.
- DonnieMac
This week's tally:
WEEK OF MAY 26
Monday: +$290
Tuesday: No picks, no plays.
Wednesday: No picks, no plays.
Thursday: Picks to come.
Friday: Pick to come.
Saturday: Picks to come.
Sunday: Picks to come.
*Anno Secretariat.
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